The sounds of war have again echoed over the Golan Heights
this past week. However, the drums of war have changed their course. Until last
summer, we could clearly hear and witness the Syrian war with Syrian and
Russian planes bombing rebel positions, occasionally “stray mortar” hitting the
Israeli Golan.
However, this week those were Israeli tanks allegedly
shooting to Quneitra, just across the Alpha Line and last month it was the roar
of Iranian surface-to-surface missiles, flying above the heads of Israeli
skiers who surprisingly saw the rendezvous of Israeli Iron dome interceptors.
The sounds of Israeli fighter jets – operating to dismantle
Iranian positions, ammunition depots and shipments to Hezbollah have replaced
the Syrian ones – have added additional drums of war to the northern horizons.
The Syrian war episode may have entered its concluding chapter, but the
Israeli-Iranian confrontation is opening a new one.
In the summer of 2018, the Assad regime reestablished its
control over the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, restoring Syrian sovereignty
and redeploying Syrian Army elements to their pre-war positions.
However, a deeper look at the developments across the
Syrian-Israeli frontier reveals that the new reality is different from
pre-civil war Syria. Today, Syrian military bases host a number of new actors,
which include pro-Iranian militias, Russian military police, and reconfigured
Syrian units. The local leadership and elements identified with the opposition
– who informally governed these areas before the Assad regime reestablished
control – have fled or been killed. In their place, stands a new security
architecture that is based and supported, in part, by foreign actors.
Eight years of war have dramatically changed the face of the
Syrian state. The Syria of the past no longer exists. Demographic and social
changes have rearranged the country, which numbered 23 million people before
the war.
Today, there are more than 5.6 million Syrian refugees
living outside the country, the vast majority of whom are Sunni.
The numbers of those killed is reported to be at least
511,000. The Syrian army, which numbered some 200,000 soldiers before the war,
quickly eroded and Assad remained in power, supported by mobilized militias
that filled the ranks of his army.
At its peak, some 80,000 militias filled the Syrian military
ranks. Iran played an important role by providing support, intelligence and
training.
The regime’s victory – with Iran and Hezbollah’s support –
has created several changes in southwest Syria. The Syrian military is no
longer the sole authority on the ground. The Russian Military Police deployed
on the Bravo Line aim to enforce a series of “reconciliations” to restore stability
on the Golan by removing non-Syrian forces, as agreed upon in the Astana
Process.
The Syrian Arab Army is no longer the same. In the south,
the 61st Regional Brigade was completely wiped out. The 90th Regional Brigade
returned, but has been reinforced with various militias, such as the NDF. The
112th brigade was deployed in the southern Golan Heights, ten kilometers from
the Israeli border to fill the vacuum left by the destroyed 61st Brigade. It is
probable that a local Hezbollah force may have been stationed under its
auspices.
Mustafa Mughniyeh, the eldest son of Imad Mughniyeh
reportedly attempted to revive an Iranian cell in the Druze village of Hader.
As outgoing chief of staff Lt.-Gen. Eisenkot detailed in an
interview with The New York Times, Hezbollah developed a three-pronged strategy
to confront Israel: building factories in Lebanon to manufacture
precision-guided missiles, digging attack tunnels under the Israeli border, and
setting up a second front from Syria on the Golan Heights. Furthermore, a
Hezbollah intelligence position was recently struck by the IDF, less than two
kilometers from Israel’s border.
Defying the understandings reached between Russia, Israel
and Jordan, Iran continues to increase its presence in southern Syria.
Several opposition sources detailed the military activities
of pro-Iranian militias on the ground, among others the Iraqi al-Imam
al-Hussein, Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas Brigades, and Hezbollah’s elite “Radwan” unit.
To conceal their activities, these militias use Syrian military bases, and some
are embedded in regime forces, reportedly wearing Syrian army uniforms, and
carrying Syrian IDs and flags.
Today, even those who are skeptical understand that Iran has
reached beyond the Golan border. The missile fired into the Hermon by Iranian
forces was launched from an area near Damascus that Israel was assured would
not contain an Iranian presence.
Iran uses the promotion of Shiism as a tool to buy loyalty
among Syrians from poor areas. These activities intensified in post-2011.
Public expressions of Shiite practices, which were limited during the time of
Assad, are now common, including in the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus.
The Assad regime’s promises to restore pre-war stability
seem to be a delusion. A weakened and exhausted population, a lack of
leadership and basic services, and the loss of Israel’s rebel partners who had
been working to stabilize the area over the past few years have resulted in a
broken society.
IDF Operation Good Neighbor was shut down, leaving a
significant vacuum of supplies and support in the southern Syria. There is
still high tension between the opposition groups that reconciled with the
regime and the Syrian Security Forces in Daraa and Quneitra. Assassinations and
explosions are still common in the government-controlled areas. The lack or
loss of stabilizing forces leave the stage open to new destabilizing forces
such as Iran.
Demonstrations are still going on in southwest Syria.
Frustrated at the regime and Russia for not observing the terms of the deal,
protesters continue to gather at the Al-Omari Mosque, calling for the regime to
uphold its commitments.
Furthermore, locals still protest the regime in Jasim,
Da’el, al-Karak. Frustration over punishments in the area continues to grow:
many have protested the forced military conscription and condemn the Syrian
intel services raids of their homes. They call for the regime to abide by the
terms of the reconciliation agreement signed last summer, in which opposition
forces surrendered control of the area in return for the safety and security of
the citizens who live there.
Following an intelligence operation, a new Iranian military
position was uncovered in northern Israel recently, buried under piles of sand
and debris. That is not a new cross-border Hezbollah tunnel or an Iranian intel
position.
It is a 2500 years
old outpost, established by the forces of Persian King Cambyses II at Tell
Keisan, during his expedition to conquer the Levant, all the way to Ethiopia.
The Ethiopian king understood the imperial and deceitful intentions and decided
to reject the diplomatic overtures, and was prepared to defend his kingdom.
Some 2500 years later, during increasing Iranian entrenchment in the Levant,
Israel may be compelled to do the same.