The drums of war are beating between Hezbollah and Israel.
All of a sudden, Israel has announced military operations on its northern
borders. The operation called ‘Northern Shield’ has led to escalation on both
sides amidst anticipation of new surprises in the coming weeks.
The imminent end of the Syrian conflict has placed Israel in
a difficult situation as Iranian forces and Hezbollah are now deployed in
provinces close to Israeli borders. When Operation Northern Shield started on
December 6, 2018 to destroy Hezbollah’s underground tunnels, the decision
to kick off such an operation was deemed hazardous by some experts.
Such an operation will not stop over the issue of
underground tunnels as Israel would seek to destroy the military infrastructure
of Hezbollah to prevent its members from targeting Israel. All political and
military indicators confirm that what is happening near the Lebanese-Israeli
border is only a prelude to a fierce war.
Tunnel vision
It is not Hezbollah but even Iran that is waiting for the
zero hour which is fast approaching in the aftermath of the Israeli military
operations. Will the coming war scenario be similar to the one witnessed on July
12, 2006? Will Israeli inspection of Hezbollah tunnels lead to a reaction in a
bid to pre-empt Israeli military action, including airstrikes?
According to Israeli military sources, Northern Shield is
not a military operation but an inspection on the borders. However, timing is
critical, as both Israel and Hezbollah might benefit from launching a limited
war at this time to show their adversary they have the upper hand.
Sources from Israel believe that Israel will have to act
soon to refurbish its reputation as the leading army in the Middle East.
However, Israeli military sources argue that such a military operation should
be preceded by preliminary engineering work. This is already being carried out
since December 4 when Israeli military engineers carried out inspections on the
borders with Lebanon to determine the weak points Hezbollah might exploit while
attacking Israel.
The second issue for Israeli military sources is the
technology that Israel army is using to unearth Hezbollah’s tunnels. This
technology employs drones and infrared thermal imaging. Cameras for special and
unique surveillance operations are used on the ground and have an ability to
detect people who try to cross the borders, as it reveals invisible infrared
energy that objects emit.
The other important aspect is that whether a war between
Hezbollah and Israel is inevitable. Some experts in the field believe it is not
because they are certain Israel would do better without destroying the tunnels
at this particular time as that would give Hezbollah more time to spend on
digging new tunnels to figure out the storing of arms and ammunitions
underground.
Yet, such non-operation considerations have been taken by
Israelis to avoid any progress by Hezbollah and to prevent the party from
having any leverage in underground war tactics.
The destruction of Hezbollah tunnels was scheduled to take
place from November 7, 2018, but was postponed until December 4 after Israel
got involved in tensions with Hamas in Gaza, with some news that the measures
used in Gaza are the same as used by Hezbollah.
Verbal volleys
The danger is there, but it is not in the offing, say both
Israel and Hezbollah. The two sides are not interested in war, but Hezbollah
has proven in the past that security situation in south Lebanon is its
responsibility. Thus, if Israeli soldiers break through the borders, Hezbollah
will react to protect its sovereignty on Lebanese soil. However, the northern
front of Israel will remain in the eye of the storm as long as Israel is in
enmity with Iran.
Deterrence exists between both sides. This explains why both
Israel and Hezbollah have not gone into war since 2006. Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu said on December 4, "We are working firmly and
responsibly on all fronts at the same time, and we will continue so with more
public and private actions to ensure Israel's security and stability”.
Here, he was referring to the operation launched by the army
to detect and neutralize Hezbollah’s tunnels from Lebanon into northern Israel.
He added that this plan is of a “scope and daring” that Israel had not
witnessed before and that it will “continue as long as it is needed and until
all of its goals are attained”.
Netanyahu reiterated that Israeli army would expand the
Northern Shield operation into the Lebanese territory. He stressed, “Anyone who
tries to harm the state of Israel will pay a heavy price. We must act firmly
and responsibly on all fronts at the same time.”
For his part, Israeli minister of transportation, minister
of intelligence and member of security cabinet Yisrael Katz said that Israeli
forces may need to go into Lebanon to deal with the newly revealed Hezbollah
attack tunnels that snake under the border.
“If we think that in order to thwart the tunnels that one
needs to operate on the other side, then we will operate on the other side of
the border,” Yisrael Katz said on December 6.
On the other hand, Hezbollah views the Northern Shield as a
bid “to shift focus off the ongoing internal issues in Israel”. The party said
in a statement that “Netanyahu is in crisis mode. He is tilting at windmills in
Lebanon in an attempt to evade it. The party is on alert and constant
vigilance. We are in control of all movements of the enemy on all fronts”.
The statement added, “Israel knows that the era during which
it has the upper hand in the region had gone with the wind. We can resist and
cause huge losses to our enemies”.
Is war inevitable?
Few months ago, Hezbollah threatened to capture Galilee,
simulating its plan in an animation video. Israel threatened it would strike
Lebanon and destroy Hezbollah infrastructure. In fact, Israel could strike
Hezbollah by aircraft causing damage, targeting some headquarters for the party
or targeting Hezbollah fighters in Syria.
However, this will not end the threats facing it. Thus,
Israel may start the war anytime and Hezbollah would retaliate and Iran will
provide the militia with more arms and ammunition.
This verbal war between both parties is mere ping-pong
rather than a real war as the recent call between Netanyahu and Russian
President Vladimir Putin revealed that Russia will not allow another war in the
region to spill over on to Syria.
