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Gov’t formation crisis: Who would eventually win?

Gov’t formation crisis: Who would eventually win?

The crisis of forming an Iraqi government and appointing a new prime minister is entering its fourth month while Iran’s influence in the country is expanding in a way that could be considered a “mandate over Mesopotamia.”


This influence is not only related to the Iraqi political or security processes, as it also reached the social, religious and cultural scenes.


One the other hand, inside of a green fortified area in the center of Baghdad, lies the U.S. embassy, which was turned out to be a political operations room, like its Iranian counterpart.


Washington is currently witnessing a shock in Iraq, as even its allies, whether Sunni or Kurdish, seemed not pliable to its pressures and having more faith in Iran’s promises.


On the contrary to previous legislative elections, terrorist factions that owe allegiance to Iran have around 29 representatives in the Parliament. These parliamentarians were involved with various terrorist groups and militias as armed operatives; seven of them participated in battles in Syria along with Bashar al-Assad’s regime, including Hassan Salem, who was believed to be the head of the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq militia, Ahmed al-Asadi and Abu Mariam Al Ansari.


This is in addition to around 100 other representatives of different parties, most notably the Islamic Dawa Party, Islamic Virtue Party, and Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and a number of Sunni parties, which all practically have been following the Iranian agenda for years.


In other words, half of Iraq’s Parliament is currently at the disposal of Iran; therefore, passing decisions is now easier than any time before.


Coalition or majority-based government


Ahmed al-Hamdani, an expert on Iraqi political affairs, said, “The compass in Iraq is almost entirely pointing at Iran, there is a final consensus that the government will only be formed in partnership between the Alliance towards Reforms party and the Fatah Alliance.”


“This means that the formation of the next government will be based on cooperation, not a government of political majority, as quoted by Muqtada al-Sadr and Nouri al-Maliki during the past weeks,” Hamdani added.


This is what Iran has been seeking from the beginning, through uniting the two election-winning Shiite parties in an alliance or a political partnership to form the government, unlike U.S. efforts to exclude the Fatah Alliance, which includes 13 political wings of armed factions, which Washington seeks to enroll on its list of terrorist organizations. These factions follow the office of the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei.


Hamdani also pointed out that it was a shock for the United States to see four Sunni alliances, out of six, to refrain from its grip, in addition to stalling the Kurds to accept an alliance with Haider al-Abadi to support him for a second term in office.


“It is certain that Washington will not accept a political loss in Iraq by surrendering to Iran’s possession, especially after all the human and financial losses they endured in this country; the matter which currently concerns Iraqis, both politically and popularly,” Hamdani clarified.


After the completion of all the requirements for the activation of the Iraqi Parliament’s role, by electing a new Sunni speaker who is affiliated to a pro-Iran coalition and two Shiite deputies, namely Hassan Karim Kaabi and Bashir al-Haddad, it is now the Kurds’ turn to determine their options internally and announce a presidential candidate; which is an honorary position that is granted minor constitutional authority. The Iraqi Parliament announced opening candidacy for the anticipated presidential election next Tuesday.