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Khamenei, Khatami and the collapse of Iran

Men of law follow the common phrase "acknowledgement is the master of evidence." When the acknowledgement comes from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as from former President Mohammad Khatami, everyone must be certain that the earthquake has already hit Iran and that the aftershocks and backlash are incisively approaching.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a speech broadcast on state television, acknowledged that Iran is living under a crippling situation due to US sanctions and that its economy is facing great difficulties.

Khamenei certainly failed to convince public opinion that American imperialism is the cause and that the ruling regime is innocent, especially since everyone knows the regime spent billions over four decades on the mullahs’ adventures abroad, while the Iranian rial has lost about 75 percent of its value since the beginning of 2018.

Khamenei does not have his feet on the ground; he lives in a state known in medical science as a "stage of denial", which is especially common in cases of terminal illness. The person denies the illness in a psychological attempt to escape, although it fails to cure the disease.

Khamenei did the same in his speech. He pointed out that "Tehran will slap Washington and defeat it by defeating the sanctions." But the man has failed to tell his people how and in what way he will be able to jump over the sanctions of the past, let alone the next major hurdle of a second set of sanctions to be introduced by the US on November 4, which aims to suspend the sale of Iranian oil abroad.

Just three days before Khamenei's remarks, former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami, the man who tried to falsely present himself to the world as a dove rather than a falcon, spoke to a number of casualties of the eight-year Iran-Iraq War and referred to the disastrous situation facing Iran, whose future will not escape from one of two scenarios: either an internal coup in the regime or a popular revolution.

Khatami opined that "when a society is dissatisfied with the status quo, does not hear its words in any way, does not deal with its needs and questions, and the windows of dialogue, transportation and freedom of expression are closed by legal means, there will be either a coup or a revolution."

The former president's remarks clearly express the deteriorating state of the Iranian social fabric, the state of dissolution and internal degeneration, which is not pacified by tranquilizers or sedatives. Evasiveness and playing upon contradictions does not spare them from their inevitable fate.

The Iranians realize that they are caught in the "mullah trap" and that the historical demands of the people have not been and will not be achieved through the hands of the clerical rulers, who insist on suicide by refusing to cooperate with the international community or stop its nuclear ambitions.

Recently, while the events were accelerating, the mullahs fired ballistic missiles in Iraq and Syria with the pretext being that the missiles were directed at the heart of ISIS-affiliated terrorist groups there; however, those far off know that Iran is the biggest supporter of terrorism around the world.

Iran's ballistic missiles are a political and military message to the United States and its allies in the region that "Tehran is ready for revenge." But it is an unprovoked revenge for the Iranian self that forgets or neglects what is known in military science as the "balance of prudence", or that for every missile or bullet fired that could hit the US or Arab Gulf, the gates of hell would be opened upon the Iranians.

Prominent Iranian intellectuals see the breakdown on the horizon. Among them is Elaheh Kulai, a professor of Iranian political science and former MP, who has warned of the possibility of Iran’s dissolution along the lines of the Soviet Union if measures are not taken to solve the economic crisis.

But the reality of the situation shows us that Iran is motivated by a historical coercion, which makes it repeat the mistakes of the past. But this time it seems that stubbornness and arrogance will be the tools that do the work of shovels in the Iranian body, which has become worn out, with the knowledge of Khamenei and Khatami.

When the dogmatic mentality is so monopolistic in a particular people, its conditions always turn out to be the worst. The ruling ideology will inevitably be infected by two deadly viruses: isolationism and unilateralism on one hand and bitter corruption on the other.

The unilateralism of Khomeini’s Iran is what made the present regime a self-centered dictatorship rejecting the existence of the other, no matter its denomination or ideology.

It is perhaps a tragedy that, one hundred years ago in Iran, a Christian cleric defended the rights and existence of Christians, Zoroastrians and Jews in parliament, while today non-Muslims have no place even in the city council and Sunni Muslims are oppressed and rejected.

Corruption usually prevails under oppressive regimes; there is no supervision or transparency, no accountability of icons, and billions of dollars are spent with no benefit for the people.

Collapse is usually an inherent mark of unilateralism and the mentality of one orientation. The ruler sees only a narcissistic, enlightened picture of himself, while that is not the case. It goes without saying that corruption is the mainstay of unilateralism, and corruption leads to security and surveillance breaches in all aspects of life.

While senior Iranian officials obtain all the financial and service facilities, the people are suffering from the hardships of living, which is evident in the slogans that rang out through the demonstrations demanding the fall of Palestine, in an unmistakable reference to the falsity of the bet on the Revolutionary Guards and Quds Force, who have wreaked havoc in the Arab world and may have provided security cover for Israel. Iranian bullets have not known how to liberate Jerusalem, the flower of cities, and never will.

Iran’s collapse has already started, and without facilitation or intimidation. A great rift has grown between the mullahs and the people. The revolution or coup d'état that Khatami and Khamenei speak of is inevitable in the near future, especially after the masses lost their confidence in the rulers.

Iranian protests began with demands to improve the economy, but they clearly soon became politically motivated in essence, with protesters denouncing Iran’s intervention in Syria and shouting slogans of "Death to Khamenei" and "Death to Rouhani".

When the Iranian government finds no solutions other than its repressive security apparatuses, those who arrested some 8,000 people in the first weeks of protests in December 2017, it is a return to the biography of the former Shah of Iran, who relied on his SAVAK intelligence service, living by the sword and forgetting that those who live by the sword also die by it.

You cannot expect rational actions from the mullahs. The time has passed and the last hour is coming, but it is regrettable that it will not come before Tehran goes down the path of the “Samson option”, destroying itself while attempting to destroy its enemies.


Last Modified: Tuesday، 16 October 2018 02:12 AM